So, I saw this video and it got me thinking about this subject a little.
Yeah, honestly it’s brutal. Not even considering the global financial state, America (or the West) is facing two great threats that will probably mean a decrease in living standards of many in this country. The first is China, America has little manufacturing. American companies just can’t compete with China in terms of cost and efficiency. In the beginning American companies greatly profited off the Chinese market because they were the ones who possessed the technology. Gradually, China began to learn, and now they have an increasing number of companies which compete with American ones and at less cost. At first it was mostly cheap goods, but now it’s growing in the complexity of the goods. You also don’t hear much about bad Chinese construction or low-quality Chinese goods anymore—because they’re just better now. Two things in addition to that don’t help. The first is that China isn’t a free-market. A lot of the money which flows into China stays in China. The second is that China artificially keeps its currency down because then they can export more.
The other big obstacle is AI. AI is going to replace many of those petty office jobs. Much of the American economy for the past several decades relies on this kind of labor. America had been doing it for longer and possessed the technology and experience, which gave it an advantage compared to other countries. But, many of those jobs are going to be rendered useless thanks to AI. Marketing, graphic design, web design, programming, translating, etc., etc., and it’s an extensive list. I don’t think people have quite opened their eyes to what is coming. If it all happened at once everybody would be shocked, but it’s a slow roll out that lulls people to sleep, then when the consequences really begin to be felt, it is only then when people will begin asking themselves how we got here in the first place.
That said, I don’t believe the solution is to attempt to neuter the growth of AI by the government. The reality is if it isn’t us then somebody else will do it. At best it would buy time and would be like trying to swim against the current. It’s never a good idea to try to futilely struggle in the current. It’s anybody guess when exactly things really will begin to reach a breaking point. In the mean time, if you’re working a job like this, check, make sure you understand where AI is at in relation to your field, don’t find yourself surprised. Second, is learn how to use AI. Third, is have a backup plan. Fourth, don’t take out big loans assuming you will have a constant stream of income forever. Fifth, if you’re young, seriously consider a trade or becoming something like a policeman or fire fighter.
I think what’s going to happen is that American wages are going to decrease. If not decrease, then become more inline with the rest of the world. American wages are kind of irregular, where they’re just so much higher than anywhere else in the world. There will probably be social unrest because people are out of work. People may be forced to go back to working more traditional jobs like our forefathers did like farming, mining, factory work, construction, etc. There may be less jobs available. What many people don’t understand is that many of these jobs just didn’t exist for most of human history. Vast majority of jobs were heavy labor. The ones which supervised or didn’t involve much movement was only a tiny portion. This is a big reason as to why women were mostly static throughout much of human history, because women don’t do heavy labor very well. So, I predict as AI replaces more jobs, it will be worse on women then it is on men. American companies which got used to opulence lost their edge, they will have to relearn how to be competitive and what it takes to survive. I think women’s upward mobility will be hindered.
Then I think at some point society is likely to hit a breaking point. Whether it’s in a few decades or 100 years, our political and economic system just doesn’t mesh well with AI. For capitalism to work it requires people purchasing the goods which are being created. If everybody is out of work then they have little buying potential. Even if you can manufacture things at the same rate or faster, it literally doesn’t matter if there is no market to sell to. I suspect there will be a massive expansion of governments worldwide, and I’m not sure democracy is exactly suited to bring the kind of governance which might be required in the future. I think humans will adapt, I think the question is more how fast will they. If we look at history, on a global scale we’re talking centuries.